Wildfires in Los Angeles County have created one of the worst climate disasters in U.S. history, and that’s really saying something given how many such disasters have hit in recent years. Is any place safe anymore? The people of Asheville, North Carolina, probably thought so until they were deluged by Hurricane Helene.
Those disasters might seem far off. We feel for the victims and maybe donate money for relief, but then the news cycle moves on to some other horrific story. Yet we are also paying a price for extreme weather events elsewhere. Most obviously, when losses run into the billions year after year, the resources of FEMA are strained, and Congress is called upon to increase its funding. Those are our tax dollars too.
At the same time, the cost of homeowners insurance is skyrocketing as insurers struggle to cover their outlays and spread the risk. I don’t feel particularly exposed to climate disaster myself, especially with the diversion project coming along, but that didn’t stop my insurance from going through the roof. Indeed, studies have shown that there has been a disproportionate increase in the Midwest in part because the market is less regulated.
And it isn’t only the effects of climate change here in the U.S. that will impact us. Already drought and desertification in Africa is contributing to misery and instability. Inevitably, climate change will drive an increase in climate refugees, and it’s going to take more than a border wall to cope with the change in global migration patterns.
The impact of climate change on our region’s environment is perhaps not as obvious as it is in California or the Gulf coast, but it is real nonetheless. In fact, between 1895 and 2015, North Dakota reportedly warmed the most of any of the lower 48 states. If you’re not into ice fishing and bemoaning the shorter season of solid ice, that may not be entirely unwelcome right now, but it raises some important questions. What adaptations will farmers need to make? What new pests are entering the region as they expand their range northward? Will the recreation economy suffer?
The distinguishing characteristic of the climate in the northern Great Plains is its extreme variability, and that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. The thing to watch is the impact of warming in the Arctic, which is happening faster than in more temperate regions. It’s likely that a decreasing difference between the arctic and subarctic temperatures means that the jet stream is not being held in a circular rotation, but instead is “wobbling.” When that happens, frigid arctic air is brought down into some areas, while others may experience exceptional heat.
The result seems to be that weather patterns are becoming less reliable. My wife LuAnn grew up on a farm and remembers how her dad counted on the Spring bringing “female” rains, the gentle, steady rains that soak in and nourish the soil. These days, it seems like rain either comes in torrents or not at all. It’s our version of what happened to Los Angeles. They had an unusually wet year followed by a drought year, so that lush vegetation that grew up one year became dry tinder the next.
So here in Minnesota we’ve set ambitious goals to address climate change, but we are not an island. Among the scariest prospects about the incoming Trump administration is his determination to undo the work of the Biden administration on this issue. We may not have the luxury of waiting another four years if we want to avoid the worst consequences. We must keep up the fight.
Paul Harris
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